4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 8 at the 94

Dallas Cowboys 22 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(2:33) 5-B.Anger punts 53 yards to LA 41, Center-45-M.Overton. 19-B.Powell to LA 46 for 5 yards (1-K.Joseph).

The Three Options

GO -2.85 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.26 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 94, worth -5.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

PUNT -2.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 52, worth -2.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model