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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 17

Dallas Cowboys 19 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(5:36) 19-B.Maher 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +2.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.47 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 17, worth -0.43 EP
KICK +1.92 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 27, worth -0.89 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP