Win Probability
Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- SF defense: -0.077 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
- DEN offense: +0.001 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
- Jimmy Garoppolo (SF): +0.167 EPA/dropback in prior starts (SF starting Jimmy Garoppolo in place of Trey Lance)
- Played at altitude (3,000+ ft)
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 3
SF
DEN
Pulled fresh for 2022 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 19 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 07:58 TD SF (7:58) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 11-B.Aiyuk for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – DEN 0
- Q2 12:00 FG DEN (12:00) 8-B.McManus 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman. SF 7 – DEN 3
- Q3 09:56 SAF DEN (9:56) 10-J.Garoppolo sacked ob in End Zone for -2 yards, SAFETY (98-M.Purcell). SF-71-T.Williams was injured during the play. SF 7 – DEN 5
- Q4 14:14 FG SF (14:14) 9-R.Gould 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. SF 10 – DEN 5
- Q4 04:13 TD DEN (4:13) 76-C.Anderson reported in as eligible. 25-M.Gordon left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SF 10 – DEN 11
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 SF 4th & 9 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(12:57) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 45 yards to DEN 29, Center-46-T.Pepper, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 DEN 4th & 7 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(11:19) 17-C.Waitman punts 47 yards to SF 21, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 3-R.McCloud to SF 25 for 4 yards (49-A.Singleton).
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Q1 DEN 4th & 2 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 61%
(7:16) 17-C.Waitman punts 57 yards to SF 10, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 3-R.McCloud to SF 19 for 9 yards (49-A.Singleton).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 SF 4th & 19 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(4:31) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 74 yards to end zone, Center-46-T.Pepper, Touchback.
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Q1 DEN 4th & 5 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(3:00) 17-C.Waitman punts 50 yards to SF 25, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 SF 4th & 3 at the 51Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EPp(convert) 52% p(FG) 28%
(:17) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 45 yards to DEN 6, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-45-D.Flannigan-Fowles.
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Q2 DEN 4th & 7 at the 37Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 64%
(12:00) 8-B.McManus 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.
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Q2 SF 4th & 4 at the 47Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EPp(convert) 47% p(FG) 38%
(9:28) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 46 yards to DEN 1, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-82-R.Dwelley. PENALTY on DEN-5-R.Gregory, Offensive Holding, 0 yards, enforced at DEN 1. Denver challenged the kick downed ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
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Q2 SF 4th & 9 at the 96Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(1:43) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 55 yards to DEN 41, Center-46-T.Pepper. 12-M.Washington to 50 for 9 yards (30-G.Odum; 48-O.Burks).
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Q2 DEN 4th & 11 at the 51Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 28%
(1:07) 17-C.Waitman punts 40 yards to SF 11, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.
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Q3 DEN 4th & 14 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(14:00) 17-C.Waitman punts 54 yards to SF 25, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 3-R.McCloud to SF 43 for 18 yards (6-P.Locke).
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Q3 DEN 4th & 9 at the 49Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 33%
(10:41) 17-C.Waitman punts 47 yards to SF 2, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, downed by DEN-26-M.Boone.
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Q3 DEN 4th & 4 at the 35Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45% p(FG) 68%
(3:51) 8-B.McManus 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.
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Q3 SF 4th & 18 at the 47Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24% p(FG) 38%
(1:47) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 41 yards to DEN 6, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-33-T.Moore.
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Q3 DEN 4th & 13 at the 97Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(:41) 17-C.Waitman punts 47 yards to 50, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 3-R.McCloud to DEN 41 for 9 yards (49-A.Singleton).
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Q4 SF 4th & 2 at the 33Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EPp(convert) 56% p(FG) 73%
(14:14) 9-R.Gould 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.
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Q4 DEN 4th & 1 at the 66Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EPp(convert) 71%
(12:35) 17-C.Waitman punts 53 yards to SF 13, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.
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Q4 SF 4th & 3 at the 56Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EPp(convert) 53%
(10:23) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-46-T.Pepper, Touchback.
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Q4 DEN 4th & 5 at the 53 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44% p(FG) 24%
(1:51) 17-C.Waitman punts 43 yards to SF 10, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 3-R.McCloud MUFFS catch, touched at SF 13, and recovers at SF 15.
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