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San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
@
DEN Home

Denver Broncos

HC Nathaniel Hackett
Sunday 2022-09-25 · 20:20 Empower Field at Mile High, Denver US ☀️ Clear Spread -1.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

SF
43.1%
DEN
56.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Jimmy Garoppolo (SF): +0.167 EPA/dropback in prior starts (SF starting Jimmy Garoppolo in place of Trey Lance)
  • SF offense: -0.030 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • SF defense: -0.077 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • DEN defense: -0.017 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (14th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SF 19
–
DEN 21
Projected margin: DEN by 2 Projected total: 40

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

SF

Daniel Brunskill G Out Hamstring
Tyrion Davis-Price RB Out Ankle
Tyler Kroft TE Out Knee
Arik Armstead DE Questionable Foot
Colton McKivitz T Questionable Ankle

DEN

Darius Phillips CB Out Hamstring
Tyrie Cleveland WR Questionable Hamstring
Jonathon Cooper LB Questionable Hamstring
Dre'Mont Jones DE Questionable Neck
K.J. Hamler WR Questionable Knee
Mike Purcell DT Questionable Elbow
Patrick Surtain CB Questionable Shoulder
Jerry Jeudy WR Questionable Rib
Josey Jewell LB Questionable Calf
Quinn Meinerz G Questionable Hamstring
Billy Turner T Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 10
–
DEN 11

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 19 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:58 TD SF (7:58) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 11-B.Aiyuk for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – DEN 0
  • Q2 12:00 FG DEN (12:00) 8-B.McManus 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman. SF 7 – DEN 3
  • Q3 09:56 SAF DEN (9:56) 10-J.Garoppolo sacked ob in End Zone for -2 yards, SAFETY (98-M.Purcell). SF-71-T.Williams was injured during the play. SF 7 – DEN 5
  • Q4 14:14 FG SF (14:14) 9-R.Gould 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. SF 10 – DEN 5
  • Q4 04:13 TD DEN (4:13) 76-C.Anderson reported in as eligible. 25-M.Gordon left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SF 10 – DEN 11

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SF 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (12:57) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 45 yards to DEN 29, Center-46-T.Pepper, out of bounds.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 7 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (11:19) 17-C.Waitman punts 47 yards to SF 21, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 3-R.McCloud to SF 25 for 4 yards (49-A.Singleton).

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61%

    (7:16) 17-C.Waitman punts 57 yards to SF 10, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 3-R.McCloud to SF 19 for 9 yards (49-A.Singleton).

  • Q1 SF 4th & 19 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (4:31) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 74 yards to end zone, Center-46-T.Pepper, Touchback.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (3:00) 17-C.Waitman punts 50 yards to SF 25, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 3 at the 51
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 28%

    (:17) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 45 yards to DEN 6, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-45-D.Flannigan-Fowles.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 7 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 64%

    (12:00) 8-B.McManus 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 4 at the 47
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 38%

    (9:28) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 46 yards to DEN 1, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-82-R.Dwelley. PENALTY on DEN-5-R.Gregory, Offensive Holding, 0 yards, enforced at DEN 1. Denver challenged the kick downed ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

  • Q2 SF 4th & 9 at the 96
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (1:43) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 55 yards to DEN 41, Center-46-T.Pepper. 12-M.Washington to 50 for 9 yards (30-G.Odum; 48-O.Burks).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 11 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 28%

    (1:07) 17-C.Waitman punts 40 yards to SF 11, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (14:00) 17-C.Waitman punts 54 yards to SF 25, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 3-R.McCloud to SF 43 for 18 yards (6-P.Locke).

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 9 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 33%

    (10:41) 17-C.Waitman punts 47 yards to SF 2, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, downed by DEN-26-M.Boone.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 4 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 68%

    (3:51) 8-B.McManus 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 18 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 38%

    (1:47) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 41 yards to DEN 6, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-33-T.Moore.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 13 at the 97
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (:41) 17-C.Waitman punts 47 yards to 50, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 3-R.McCloud to DEN 41 for 9 yards (49-A.Singleton).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 2 at the 33
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 73%

    (14:14) 9-R.Gould 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (12:35) 17-C.Waitman punts 53 yards to SF 13, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 3 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (10:23) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-46-T.Pepper, Touchback.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 5 at the 53 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 24%

    (1:51) 17-C.Waitman punts 43 yards to SF 10, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 3-R.McCloud MUFFS catch, touched at SF 13, and recovers at SF 15.