Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 13 at the 97

Denver Broncos 5 – San Francisco 49ers 7

(:41) 17-C.Waitman punts 47 yards to 50, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 3-R.McCloud to DEN 41 for 9 yards (49-A.Singleton).

The Three Options

GO -3.82 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.78 EP
66% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 97, worth -6.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (114 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model