Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 19 at the 74

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Denver Broncos 0

(4:31) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 74 yards to end zone, Center-46-T.Pepper, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -2.83 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.05 EP
74% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 74, worth -4.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model