4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 33

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Denver Broncos 5

What Actually Happened

(14:14) 9-R.Gould 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +1.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.80 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 33, worth -1.59 EP
KICK +0.77 EP
What Happened
  • 73% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 43, worth -2.19 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP