Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 75

Denver Broncos 0 – San Francisco 49ers 7

(3:00) 17-C.Waitman punts 50 yards to SF 25, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.

The Three Options

GO -1.45 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.68 EP
54% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model