Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 14 at the 79

Denver Broncos 3 – San Francisco 49ers 7

(14:00) 17-C.Waitman punts 54 yards to SF 25, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 3-R.McCloud to SF 43 for 18 yards (6-P.Locke).

The Three Options

GO -2.54 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
70% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 79, worth -4.50 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model