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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 47

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(9:28) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 46 yards to DEN 1, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-82-R.Dwelley. PENALTY on DEN-5-R.Gregory, Offensive Holding, 0 yards, enforced at DEN 1. Denver challenged the kick downed ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

The Three Options

GO -0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.96 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 47, worth -2.72 EP
KICK -1.10 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 13, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP