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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 51

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(:17) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 45 yards to DEN 6, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-45-D.Flannigan-Fowles.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.62 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 51, worth -2.96 EP
KICK -1.63 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.97 EP
PUNT -0.70 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 14, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP