4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 18 at the 47

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Denver Broncos 5

What Actually Happened

(1:47) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 41 yards to DEN 6, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-33-T.Moore.

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.03 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 47, worth -2.66 EP
KICK -1.06 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 13, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model