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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 9 at the 96

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(1:43) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 55 yards to DEN 41, Center-46-T.Pepper. 12-M.Washington to 50 for 9 yards (30-G.Odum; 48-O.Burks).

The Three Options

GO -3.33 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth +0.62 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 96, worth -5.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (113 yards).

PUNT -2.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 53, worth -2.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model