Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 9 at the 74

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Denver Broncos 0

(12:57) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 45 yards to DEN 29, Center-46-T.Pepper, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.43 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.34 EP
63% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 74, worth -4.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model