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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 9 at the 49

Denver Broncos 3 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(10:41) 17-C.Waitman punts 47 yards to SF 2, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, downed by DEN-26-M.Boone.

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.42 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.73 EP
KICK -1.13 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model