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Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
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Minnesota Vikings

HC Kevin O'Connell
Sunday 2022-09-25 · 13:00 U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 6.5 O/U 52.0

Win Probability

DET
48.5%
MIN
51.5%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DET offense: +0.064 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • DET defense: +0.142 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • Jared Goff (DET): -0.059 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • MIN offense: -0.049 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

DET 22
–
MIN 23
Projected margin: MIN by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

DET

John Cominsky DE Out Wrist
Jonah Jackson G Out Finger
T.J. Hockenson TE Questionable Hip
Aidan Hutchinson DE Questionable Thigh
Frank Ragnow C Questionable Foot
D'Andre Swift RB Questionable Ankle

MIN

Andrew Booth CB Out Quadricep
Harrison Smith S Out Concussion
Eric Kendricks LB Questionable Toe

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 24
–
MIN 28

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:49 TD DET (6:49) 30-Ja.Williams left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 6 – MIN 0
  • Q2 13:42 TD DET (13:42) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 88-T.Hockenson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 13 – MIN 0
  • Q2 08:55 TD MIN (8:55) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 19-A.Thielen for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 14 – MIN 6
  • Q2 01:18 TD MIN (1:18) (Shotgun) 4-D.Cook left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 14 – MIN 13
  • Q3 08:40 FG DET (8:40) 19-A.Seibert 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox. DET 17 – MIN 14
  • Q3 02:14 TD DET (2:14) 67-M.Nelson reported in as eligible. 30-Ja.Williams right end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on DET-30-Ja.Williams, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. DET 23 – MIN 14
  • Q4 07:55 TD MIN (7:55) 2-A.Mattison left guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 24 – MIN 20
  • Q4 00:50 TD MIN (:50) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 17-K.Osborn for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN [54-A.McNeill]. DET 24 – MIN 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 6 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 80%

    (11:08) 19-A.Seibert 48 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 10 at the 38
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 64%

    (9:25) 1-G.Joseph 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 5 at the 32
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 77%

    (7:12) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 14-A.St. Brown pushed ob at MIN 2 for 30 yards (7-P.Peterson).

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 5 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (4:18) 14-R.Wright punts 47 yards to DET 18, Center-42-A.DePaola. 11-K.Raymond to DET 30 for 12 yards (82-B.Ellefson).

  • Q1 DET 4th & 1 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 47%

    (1:53) 30-Ja.Williams right guard to MIN 40 for 5 yards (24-C.Bynum).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 1 at the 31
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 79%

    (15:00) 67-M.Nelson reported in as eligible. 16-J.Goff pass short right to 8-J.Reynolds to MIN 14 for 17 yards (44-J.Metellus).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 1 at the 51
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 32%

    (5:04) 67-M.Nelson reported in as eligible. 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short left to 88-T.Hockenson (54-E.Kendricks).

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 6 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 47%

    (3:34) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 19-A.Thielen to DET 39 for 6 yards (34-A.Anzalone).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 4 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (:41) 3-J.Fox punts 50 yards to MIN 8, Center-47-S.Daly, out of bounds.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 8 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (14:10) 14-R.Wright punts 51 yards to DET 21, Center-42-A.DePaola. 11-K.Raymond to DET 32 for 11 yards (82-B.Ellefson).

  • Q3 DET 4th & 2 at the 46
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 44%

    (10:41) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 8-J.Reynolds pushed ob at MIN 30 for 16 yards (44-J.Metellus).

  • Q3 DET 4th & 2 at the 22
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 90%

    (8:40) 19-A.Seibert 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 12 at the 38
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 64%

    (4:51) 1-G.Joseph 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 12 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (15:00) 3-J.Fox punts 41 yards to MIN 19, Center-47-S.Daly. 5-J.Reagor MUFFS catch, and recovers at MIN 15. 5-J.Reagor to MIN 26 for 11 yards (51-J.Woods, 49-C.Board).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 3 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (13:06) 14-R.Wright punts 58 yards to DET 9, Center-42-A.DePaola, downed by MIN-29-K.Boyd.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 1 at the 73
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.23 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (10:47) 3-J.Fox punts 39 yards to MIN 34, Center-47-S.Daly. 5-J.Reagor to MIN 43 for 9 yards (87-Q.Cephus).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 1 at the 30 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 80%

    (3:35) 30-Ja.Williams right tackle to MIN 30 for no gain (99-D.Hunter, 54-E.Kendricks).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 8 at the 53 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 28%

    (2:36) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right to 19-A.Thielen [53-C.Harris].

  • Q4 DET 4th & 4 at the 36 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 69%

    (1:14) 19-A.Seibert 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.