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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 5 at the 65

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(4:18) 14-R.Wright punts 47 yards to DET 18, Center-42-A.DePaola. 11-K.Raymond to DET 30 for 12 yards (82-B.Ellefson).

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.36 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 65, worth -3.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 23, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model