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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 10 at the 38

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(9:25) 1-G.Joseph 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.48 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 38, worth -1.64 EP
KICK +0.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 47, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model