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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 12 at the 38

Minnesota Vikings 14 – Detroit Lions 17

What Actually Happened

(4:51) 1-G.Joseph 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.44 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 38, worth -1.88 EP
KICK +0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 47, worth -2.62 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model