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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 67

Minnesota Vikings 14 – Detroit Lions 24

What Actually Happened

(13:06) 14-R.Wright punts 58 yards to DET 9, Center-42-A.DePaola, downed by MIN-29-K.Boyd.

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.93 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 67, worth -3.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 25, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP