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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 51

Detroit Lions 14 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(5:04) 67-M.Nelson reported in as eligible. 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short left to 88-T.Hockenson (54-E.Kendricks).

The Three Options

GO +1.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.68 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 51, worth -2.93 EP
KICK -1.39 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.93 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 14, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model