4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 4 at the 58

Detroit Lions 14 – Minnesota Vikings 14

What Actually Happened

(:41) 3-J.Fox punts 50 yards to MIN 8, Center-47-S.Daly, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +1.69 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 58, worth -2.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 18, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model