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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 30

Detroit Lions 24 – Minnesota Vikings 21

What Actually Happened

(3:35) 30-Ja.Williams right tackle to MIN 30 for no gain (99-D.Hunter, 54-E.Kendricks).

The Three Options

GO +2.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.61 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30, worth -1.08 EP
KICK +1.41 EP
  • 80% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 40, worth -1.34 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model