4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 22

Detroit Lions 14 – Minnesota Vikings 14

What Actually Happened

(8:40) 19-A.Seibert 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +2.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.55 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 22, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.47 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 32, worth -1.67 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP