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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Detroit Lions
4th & 1 at the 45
Detroit Lions 7 – Minnesota Vikings 0
What Actually Happened
(1:53) 30-Ja.Williams right guard to MIN 40 for 5 yards (24-C.Bynum).
The Three Options
GO
+1.19 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.80 EP
- 30% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 45, worth -2.60 EP
KICK
-0.83 EP
- 47% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
- 53% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT
-0.54 EP
- Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 12, worth -0.54 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
