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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 30

Detroit Lions 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(11:08) 19-A.Seibert 48 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +0.62 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.25 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30, worth -1.73 EP
KICK +0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 40, worth -2.45 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model