Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 12 at the 60

Detroit Lions 24 – Minnesota Vikings 14

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 3-J.Fox punts 41 yards to MIN 19, Center-47-S.Daly. 5-J.Reagor MUFFS catch, and recovers at MIN 15. 5-J.Reagor to MIN 26 for 11 yards (51-J.Woods, 49-C.Board).

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.72 EP
68% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 60, worth -3.29 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model