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Los Angeles Chargers

9-8 HC Brandon Staley
@
LV Home

Las Vegas Raiders

10-7 HC Rich Bisaccia
Sunday 2022-01-09 · 20:20 ET Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.5 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

LAC
61.2%
LV
38.8%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • LAC offense: +0.092 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • LV offense: -0.059 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • LV defense: +0.119 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • LAC defense: +0.051 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • Justin Herbert (LAC): +0.149 EPA/dropback in prior starts

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

LAC 25 18–32
–
LV 21 14–28
Projected margin: LAC by 4 Projected total: 46

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 18

LAC

Joe Gaziano DE Out Ankle
Drue Tranquill LB Questionable Ankle

LV

Johnathan Hankins DT Questionable Back
Casey Hayward CB Questionable Ankle
Josh Jacobs RB Questionable Ribs
Darren Waller TE Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LAC 32
–
LV 35

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 21 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:54 FG LV (10:54) 2-D.Carlson 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. LAC 0 – LV 3
  • Q1 03:20 TD LV (3:20) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 13-H.Renfrow for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 0 – LV 9
  • Q2 12:48 TD LAC (12:48) (Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler left guard for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 6 – LV 10
  • Q2 02:00 TD LAC (2:00) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 30-A.Ekeler for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 13 – LV 10
  • Q2 00:41 TD LV (:41) 28-J.Jacobs left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 14 – LV 16
  • Q3 08:07 FG LV (8:07) 2-D.Carlson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. LAC 14 – LV 20
  • Q4 14:18 TD LV (14:18) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 13-H.Renfrow for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 14 – LV 26
  • Q4 08:29 FG LV (8:29) 2-D.Carlson 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. LAC 14 – LV 29
  • Q4 04:35 TD LAC (4:35) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep middle to 5-J.Palmer for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 20 – LV 29
  • Q4 00:05 TD LAC (:05) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 81-M.Williams for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 28 – LV 29
  • Q5 07:14 FG LV (7:14) 2-D.Carlson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. LAC 29 – LV 32
  • Q5 04:35 FG LAC (4:35) 6-D.Hopkins 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long. LAC 32 – LV 32
  • Q5 00:02 FG LV (:02) 2-D.Carlson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. LAC 32 – LV 35

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%

    (10:54) 2-D.Carlson 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 LAC 4th & 2 at the 69
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (9:22) 1-T.Long punts 55 yards to LV 14, Center-54-M.Overton. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 24 for 10 yards (31-N.Niemann; 49-D.Tranquill).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 LV 4th & 12 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (6:59) 6-A.Cole punts 46 yards to LAC 18, Center-47-T.Sieg. 7-A.Roberts to LAC 22 for 4 yards (17-T.Johnson). FUMBLES (17-T.Johnson), RECOVERED by LV-5-D.Deablo at LAC 23.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 LV 4th & 2 at the 15
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 95%

    (4:40) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 7-Z.Jones to LAC 13 for 2 yards (32-A.Gilman).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LAC 4th & 2 at the 19
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 92%

    (13:23) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 15-J.Guyton to LV 14 for 5 yards (5-D.Deablo).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LV 4th & 6 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 51%

    (9:01) 6-A.Cole punts 33 yards to LAC 10, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 7-A.Roberts.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LAC 4th & 13 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (:19) 1-T.Long punts 51 yards to LV 27, Center-54-M.Overton. 13-H.Renfrow ran ob at LV 36 for 9 yards (31-N.Niemann).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 LV 4th & 8 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (10:50) 6-A.Cole punts 48 yards to LAC 9, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 7-A.Roberts.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 LAC 4th & 1 at the 82
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 76%

    (8:57) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle to LAC 16 for -2 yards (96-D.Philon, 33-R.Teamer).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 LV 4th & 6 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 96%

    (8:07) 2-D.Carlson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 LAC 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (6:43) 1-T.Long punts 56 yards to LV 19, Center-54-M.Overton. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 32 for 13 yards (88-T.McKitty). PENALTY on LV-32-D.Leavitt, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at LV 32.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LV 4th & 5 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 73%

    (8:29) 2-D.Carlson 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LAC 4th & 6 at the 18
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 93%

    (5:01) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 81-M.Williams to LV 13 for 5 yards (35-B.Facyson). Los Angeles Chargers challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 81-M.Williams to LV 12 for 6 yards (35-B.Facyson).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LV 4th & 16 at the 81 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (2:16) 6-A.Cole punts 54 yards to LAC 27, Center-47-T.Sieg. 7-A.Roberts ran ob at LAC 38 for 11 yards (5-D.Deablo). PENALTY on LAC-37-K.Hall, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 27.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LAC 4th & 10 at the 83 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 40%

    (1:49) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 13-K.Allen to LAC 28 for 11 yards (29-C.Hayward).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LAC 4th & 10 at the 43 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.09 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 51%

    (:22) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 81-M.Williams to LV 29 for 14 yards (10-D.Trufant).

    See the full breakdown →