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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 82

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 17

What Actually Happened

(8:57) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle to LAC 16 for -2 yards (96-D.Philon, 33-R.Teamer).

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.57 EP
  • 24% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 82, worth -4.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.16 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 40, worth -2.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model