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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 34

Las Vegas Raiders 26 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

What Actually Happened

(8:29) 2-D.Carlson 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +0.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.08 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.66 EP
KICK +0.66 EP
What Happened
  • 73% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.16 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model