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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 15

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(4:40) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 7-Z.Jones to LAC 13 for 2 yards (32-A.Gilman).

The Three Options

GO +2.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.26 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 15, worth -0.23 EP
KICK +2.17 EP
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25, worth -0.70 EP
PUNT +0.16 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model