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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 19

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(13:23) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 15-J.Guyton to LV 14 for 5 yards (5-D.Deablo).

The Three Options

GO +2.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.70 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 19, worth -0.95 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 29, worth -1.66 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model