Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 75

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 20

What Actually Happened

(6:43) 1-T.Long punts 56 yards to LV 19, Center-54-M.Overton. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 32 for 13 yards (88-T.McKitty). PENALTY on LV-32-D.Leavitt, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at LV 32.

The Three Options

GO -2.17 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.44 EP
61% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 75, worth -4.44 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model