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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 18

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 29

What Actually Happened

(5:01) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 81-M.Williams to LV 13 for 5 yards (35-B.Facyson). Los Angeles Chargers challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 81-M.Williams to LV 12 for 6 yards (35-B.Facyson).

The Three Options

GO +1.73 EP
What Happened
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.93 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 18, worth -0.38 EP
KICK +1.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 28, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model