Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 16 at the 81

Las Vegas Raiders 29 – Los Angeles Chargers 22

What Actually Happened

(2:16) 6-A.Cole punts 54 yards to LAC 27, Center-47-T.Sieg. 7-A.Roberts ran ob at LAC 38 for 11 yards (5-D.Deablo). PENALTY on LAC-37-K.Hall, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 27.

The Three Options

GO -2.38 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.47 EP
71% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 81, worth -3.96 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model