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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 43

Los Angeles Chargers 22 – Las Vegas Raiders 29

What Actually Happened

(:22) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 81-M.Williams to LV 29 for 14 yards (10-D.Trufant).

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
What Happened
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +1.01 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 43, worth -0.53 EP
KICK +1.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.83 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -0.73 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.09 EP