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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 12

Las Vegas Raiders 17 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

What Actually Happened

(8:07) 2-D.Carlson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +1.97 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.65 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 12, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +2.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.72 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model