Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 13 at the 78

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 17

(:19) 1-T.Long punts 51 yards to LV 27, Center-54-M.Overton. 13-H.Renfrow ran ob at LV 36 for 9 yards (31-N.Niemann).

The Three Options

GO -1.99 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.61 EP
65% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 78, worth -3.37 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model