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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 43

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(9:01) 6-A.Cole punts 33 yards to LAC 10, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 7-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO +0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.74 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.00 EP
KICK -0.27 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP