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Indianapolis Colts

HC Frank Reich
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Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Darrell Bevell
Sunday 2022-01-09 · 13:00 TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville US 💨 Windy Spread -14.0 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

IND
74.2%
JAX
25.8%
💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • IND offense: +0.125 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • JAX offense: -0.163 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • JAX defense: +0.163 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • Trevor Lawrence (JAX): -0.094 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Wind 19 mph

Predicted Final Score

IND 26
–
JAX 16
Projected margin: IND by 10 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

IND

Xavier Rhodes CB Out Hamstring
DeForest Buckner DT Questionable Knee

JAX

James O'Shaughnessy TE Out Hip
Tavon Austin WR Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 11
–
JAX 26

Prediction missed by 25 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:55 TD JAX (7:55) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 18-L.Treadwell for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND-23-K.Moore was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. IND 0 – JAX 6
  • Q2 09:12 FG IND (9:12) 6-M.Badgley 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 3 – JAX 7
  • Q2 03:11 FG JAX (3:11) 15-M.Wright 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-19-J.Charlton. IND 3 – JAX 10
  • Q2 00:02 FG JAX (:02) 15-M.Wright 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-19-J.Charlton. IND 3 – JAX 13
  • Q3 11:37 FG JAX (11:37) 15-M.Wright 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-19-J.Charlton. IND 3 – JAX 16
  • Q3 03:17 TD JAX (3:17) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 11-M.Jones for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 3 – JAX 22
  • Q4 08:20 FG JAX (8:20) 15-M.Wright 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-19-J.Charlton. IND 3 – JAX 26
  • Q4 04:31 TD IND (4:31) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass short left to 11-M.Pittman for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 9 – JAX 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 IND 4th & 2 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 38%

    (6:02) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor up the middle to JAX 41 for 1 yard (96-A.Gotsis).

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 7 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 30%

    (2:06) 19-J.Charlton punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Touchback.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 1 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72% p(FG) 58%

    (12:54) 28-J.Taylor up the middle to JAX 30 for 5 yards (38-A.Cisco).

  • Q2 IND 4th & 13 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 85%

    (9:12) 6-M.Badgley 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 2 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.18 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 98%

    (3:11) 15-M.Wright 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-19-J.Charlton.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (1:42) 8-R.Sanchez punts 45 yards to JAX 27, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 4-J.Mickens.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 8 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 88%

    (11:37) 15-M.Wright 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-19-J.Charlton.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 19 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 15%

    (8:37) 8-R.Sanchez punts 33 yards to JAX 20, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 9 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (7:07) 19-J.Charlton punts 50 yards to IND 29, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 5 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 53%

    (:57) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass short middle to 11-M.Pittman to JAX 28 for 9 yards (21-N.Lawson) [95-R.Robertson-Harris].

  • Q4 IND 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 99%

    (13:02) 28-J.Taylor up the middle to JAX 1 for no gain (26-S.Griffin; 41-J.Allen).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 4 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (10:42) 19-J.Charlton punts 57 yards to IND 36, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 21-N.Hines to IND 43 for 7 yards (31-N.Cottrell).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 12 at the 59
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (9:51) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass incomplete deep left to 1-P.Campbell (32-T.Campbell) [95-R.Robertson-Harris].

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 3 at the 13
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 95%

    (8:20) 15-M.Wright 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-19-J.Charlton.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 2 at the 41 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 41%

    (2:06) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence right end to IND 38 for 3 yards (37-K.Willis).