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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 45

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(2:06) 19-J.Charlton punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.11 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.59 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 45, worth -2.05 EP
KICK -1.08 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 12, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model