4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 13 at the 23

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(9:12) 6-M.Badgley 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +0.65 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.14 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 23, worth -1.23 EP
KICK +1.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 33, worth -1.83 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model