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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 42

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(6:02) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor up the middle to JAX 41 for 1 yard (96-A.Gotsis).

The Three Options

GO +0.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.05 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 42, worth -2.47 EP
KICK -1.19 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -3.00 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model