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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 8 at the 21

Jacksonville Jaguars 13 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(11:37) 15-M.Wright 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-19-J.Charlton.

The Three Options

GO +1.13 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.19 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 31, worth -1.35 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model