4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 93

Jacksonville Jaguars 23 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(10:42) 19-J.Charlton punts 57 yards to IND 36, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 21-N.Hines to IND 43 for 7 yards (31-N.Cottrell).

The Three Options

GO -2.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth +0.10 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 93, worth -5.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

PUNT -2.73 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 51, worth -2.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model