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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 13

Jacksonville Jaguars 23 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(8:20) 15-M.Wright 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-19-J.Charlton.

The Three Options

GO +1.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.19 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 13, worth -1.20 EP
KICK +0.73 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +0.88 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 23, worth -1.92 EP
PUNT -1.04 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP