Back to Game
Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
?
Q2
Indianapolis Colts
4th & 1 at the 35
Indianapolis Colts 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7
What Actually Happened
(12:54) 28-J.Taylor up the middle to JAX 30 for 5 yards (38-A.Cisco).
The Three Options
GO
+1.94 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.47 EP
- 28% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 35, worth -1.96 EP
KICK
-0.09 EP
- 58% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
- 42% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 45, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT
-0.32 EP
- Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
