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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 19 at the 53

Indianapolis Colts 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 16

What Actually Happened

(8:37) 8-R.Sanchez punts 33 yards to JAX 20, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.20 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.65 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 53, worth -3.04 EP
KICK -2.16 EP
  • 15% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 85% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 15, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model