Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 72

Indianapolis Colts 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

(1:42) 8-R.Sanchez punts 45 yards to JAX 27, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 4-J.Mickens.

The Three Options

GO -1.53 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.53 EP
55% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 72, worth -4.05 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model