Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 9 at the 79

Jacksonville Jaguars 16 – Indianapolis Colts 3

(7:07) 19-J.Charlton punts 50 yards to IND 29, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.45 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.44 EP
65% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 79, worth -4.52 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model