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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 1

Indianapolis Colts 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 23

What Actually Happened

(13:02) 28-J.Taylor up the middle to JAX 1 for no gain (26-S.Griffin; 41-J.Allen).

The Three Options

GO +4.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.02 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 1, worth +0.72 EP
KICK +2.04 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.67 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model